Guinea-Bissau is an extreme example of governance failure. Since independence in 1974, the country has experienced multiple coups and periods of political turmoil, leaving state capacity extremely weak. This fragility is not accidental. It is the result of several structural factors working together.
The first is thesingularly dependent nature of the economy. Cashew nuts account for over ninety percent of export revenue. This extreme dependence makes the country highly vulnerable to international price fluctuations. The second is the fragmented nature of society. There are multiple ethnic groups and factions, and political loyalty is often based on ethnicity and family rather than national institutions. The third is the weakness of institutions. State-building has never been completed since independence. Formal institutions are hollowed out by informal relationships.
The so-called path of becoming thepower behind the throne is essentially about studying how to exercise real influence in a context of weak institutions and fragmented society through control of key resources, distribution of benefits, and manipulation of power networks. But the more important question may not be how to achieve this control, but the governance dilemma that follows. In an environment withoutrobust institutions, any form of control is unsustainable.
Guinea-Bissau experience offers an important lesson for understanding governance: institutions matter more than individuals. A persons ability and will are important, but without institutional support, even the best leader cannot sustain good governance.