One Ledger, Two Pages
A single system can run two paths side by side: a value base position earning margin of safety, an event-arbitrage sleeve earning the event itself. Two tracks are not indecision; the one precondition is that the two ledgers never merge.
4 min readInvesting
Two Trades, One Incomplete Education
Pure value dies from ignoring timing, pure timing dies with no anchor: picking stocks and timing entries are two trades, and one teacher cannot teach both.
4 min readInvesting
The Strongest Businesses Fall First
The monopoly-tax model and the money-burning model look the strongest, yet their deaths are written in advance: one stands against its customers waiting for regulators, the other bets that funding never dries up.
4 min readInvesting
Five Signals of a Top, Five Signals of a Bottom
You don't guess tops and bottoms, you count them: ten observable signals, and a position counted from a checklist beats a price target guessed from a hunch.
3 min readInvesting
Telling Time Is Free, What Gets Worn Is Not
Once the function is free, the price moves into meaning.
4 min readMarketing
Three Sentences or Pass
The first screen in fundamental research is not valuation but restatement: if a company's core, unchanging asset cannot be explained in three sentences, pass. Complexity is not depth; it is a source of error.
4 min readInvesting
Match the Ruler to the Asset
Three asset classes, three rulers: cyclicals are measured by capacity and supply cycles, defense by asset injections and long-term orders, consumer and pharma by brands, licenses, and the installed base of customers. The ruler follows the asset; a bargain measured with the wrong ruler is a false bargain.
4 min readInvesting
Tracks Are Rented, Discipline Is Yours
Rotation is not chasing what is hot; it is switching lanes and redeploying positions when two triggers fire — a reversal in interest rates, a reversal in industry momentum. While the triggers stay silent, not one step; once they fire, the old lane gets handed back. The lane changes; the ruler and the discipline do not.
4 min readInvesting
Survive the Cycle First
Only a few principles keep you from being harvested by the cycle: avoid the crowds, don't sell at the bottom, cash is oxygen, diversify, and your own ability is the asset that crosses every cycle.
5 min readInvesting
Valuation's First Cut Is a Pair of Scissors
One PE ratio cannot cover a company: split it into independent business segments, benchmark each against a global leader by revenue and market share, and add up the parts. The first cut of valuation is not a calculator, it is scissors.
4 min readInvesting
The Compliment Was Scheduled
By the fifth compliment on his commute, the design had already shown itself.
4 min readMarketing
Money That Doesn't Bet on Direction
The money-changer's answer is almost boring: never bet direction, only collect the spread. Yet that is what turns volatility into foot traffic.
3 min readBusiness